From the end of May to the beginning of June, a new round of price adjustment cycle of needle coke market will be ushered in. However, at present, needle coke market is dominated by a wait-and-see attitude. Except for some enterprises that update the price in June and take the lead in tentatively pushing up 300 yuan/ton, the actual negotiation transaction has not yet landed. How should China's needle coke market price behave in June, and can continue the rising trend in May?
From the price trend of needle coke, it can be seen that the price of needle coke is firm and upward from March to April, and then keeps stable after pushing up at the beginning of May. In May, the mainstream price of oil-based coke is 10,500-11,200 yuan/ton, that of oil-based coke is 14,000-15,000 yuan/ton, that of coal-based coke is 9,000-10,000 yuan/ton, and that of coal-based coke is 12,200 yuan/ton. At present, there are several reasons for needle coke to wait and see:
1. The price of low-sulfur petroleum coke has dropped. In late May, the price of ordinary low-sulfur petroleum coke in Dagang and Taizhou took the lead, and then Jinzhou Petrochemical followed suit. On June 1st, the price of Jinxi Petrochemical dropped to 6,900 yuan/ton, and the price difference between Daqing and Fushun high-quality petroleum coke widened to 2,000 yuan/ton. With the decline of low sulfur petroleum coke, some downstream enterprises increased the blending ratio of petroleum coke, which affected the demand for needle coke to some extent. The needle coke industry should refer to the price of petroleum coke in Daqing and Fushun. At present, there is no pressure in the two stocks, and there is no downward adjustment plan yet, so the needle coke market will wait and see.
2. Downstream negative electrode procurement demand slows down. Under the influence of the epidemic situation, orders for power batteries and digital batteries declined in May. The raw materials for needle coke of anode materials were mainly digested in the early stage, and the number of new orders decreased. Some enterprises, especially coal-based needle coke, increased their inventory.
3. The output of graphite electrode remained low. The profit of steel mills is poor, and graphite electrode enterprises are affected by epidemic situation, environmental protection and high prices of raw materials, so their enthusiasm for starting construction is not high and their output is low. Therefore, the dosage of needle coke is relatively flat. Some small-scale production enterprises use low-sulfur petroleum coke instead of needle coke.
Market outlook analysis: In the short term, the anode enterprises mainly digest the stock of raw materials in the early stage, and sign fewer new orders. In addition, the tribal price of low-sulfur petroleum coke bureau will have a certain impact on the shipment of needle coke. However, the needle coke enterprises have high production costs, and it is unlikely that the price will fall under the compression of profits. Therefore, the needle coke market will continue to dominate in June in a wait-and-see situation. In the long run, with the epidemic situation in Shanghai and other places under control, automobile production is expected to gradually recover, and terminal demand is expected to pick up. In addition, in the third quarter, some negative electrode materials will still be put into production, which will increase the demand for needle coke raw materials. When negative electrode enterprises start stocking raw materials, the tight situation of needle coke will again form favorable support for prices.
Post time: Jun-09-2022