Market overview
This week, the overall shipments of the petroleum coke market were divided. The Dongying area of Shandong Province was unblocked this week, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods from downstream was high. In addition, the price of petroleum coke in local refineries has been falling, and it has basically dropped to the downstream price. The downstream purchases actively and local coking. The price began to rise; the main refineries continued to have high prices, and the downstream was generally less motivated to receive goods, and the price of petroleum coke in some refineries continued to fall. This week, Sinopec’s refineries traded at a stable price. Some coke prices of PetroChina’s refineries fell by 150-350 yuan/ton, and some CNOOC refineries lowered their coke prices by 100-150 yuan/ton. Local refineries’ petroleum coke stopped falling and rebounded. Range 50-330 yuan / ton.
Analysis of factors affecting the petroleum coke market this week
Medium and high sulfur petroleum coke
1. In terms of supply, the coking unit of Yanshan Petrochemical in North China will be shut down for maintenance for 8 days from November 4th, while Tianjin Petrochemical expects that the external sales of petroleum coke will decrease this month. Therefore, the overall supply of high-sulfur petroleum coke in North China will decline, and the downstream will be more motivated to pick up goods. The Jingmen Petrochemical coking unit in the riverside area has been shut down for maintenance this week. In addition, the Anqing Petrochemical coking unit has been shut down for maintenance. The medium-sulfur petroleum coke resources in the riverside area are still relatively tight; the price of PetroChina’s northwest region is still stable this week. The overall shipment is relatively stable, and the inventory of each refinery is low; the price of petroleum coke in local refineries has stopped falling and rebounded. Since the end of last week, the static management area in some parts of Shandong has been basically unblocked, logistics and transportation have gradually recovered, and the inventory of downstream enterprises has been at a low level for a long time. , The enthusiasm for receiving goods is high, and the overall reduction of petroleum coke inventories in refineries has prompted the continuous upward trend of refined petroleum coke prices. 2. In terms of downstream demand, the epidemic prevention policy in some areas has been relaxed slightly, and the logistics and transportation have recovered slightly. Overlaying the long-term low inventory of petroleum coke, the raw material of downstream enterprises, downstream enterprises have a strong willingness to purchase, and a large number of purchases are made in the market. 3. In terms of ports, the imported petroleum coke this week is mainly concentrated in Shandong Rizhao Port, Weifang Port, Qingdao Port Dongjiakou and other ports, and the port petroleum coke inventory continues to increase. At present, the Dongying area has been unblocked, Guangli Port has returned to normal shipments, and Rizhao Port has returned to normal. , Weifang Port, etc. delivery speed is still relatively fast. Low-sulfur petroleum coke: The low-sulfur petroleum coke market traded steadily this week, with some refineries making minor adjustments. On the demand side, the overall supply of the downstream negative electrode market is acceptable, and the demand for low-sulfur petroleum coke is relatively stable; the market demand for graphite electrodes continues to be flat; the construction of the carbon industry for aluminum is still at a high level, and individual companies are limited in transportation due to the epidemic. In terms of market details this week, the price of Daqing Petrochemical petroleum coke in Northeast China is stable and will be sold at a guaranteed price from November 6; Sales, the epidemic-quiet areas have been unblocked one after another, and the pressure on transportation has been eased; Liaohe Petrochemical’s latest bid price this week has dropped to 6,900 yuan/ton; Jilin Petrochemical’s coke price has been lowered to 6,300 yuan/ton; Dagang Petrochemical’s petroleum coke in North China tender. CNOOC’s CNOOC Asphalt (Binzhou) and Taizhou Petrochemical pet coke prices were stable this week, while Huizhou and Zhoushan petrochemical pet coke prices were slightly lowered, and the overall shipments of refineries were not under pressure.
This week, the price of the local refined petroleum coke market stopped falling and rebounded. In the early stage, due to the static management of some areas in Shandong, the logistics and transportation were not smooth, and the automobile transportation was seriously hindered. As a result, the overall inventory of petroleum coke in the local refinery was seriously overstocked, and the impact on the local refined petroleum coke price was obvious. . Since the weekend, the static management areas in some parts of Shandong have been basically unblocked, logistics and transportation have gradually recovered, and the inventory of downstream enterprises has been at a low level for a long time. . However, due to the impact of a large number of imported petroleum coke arriving in Hong Kong and the deterioration of the overall indicators of local refining petroleum coke, the price of petroleum coke with sulfur above 3.0% only pushed up slightly, and the rate was lower than expected. Enthusiasm is still high, the price rises sharply, the price adjustment range is 50-330 yuan / ton. In the early stage, some areas in Shandong were affected by the obstruction of logistics and transportation, and the inventory backlog of manufacturers was relatively serious, which was at a medium-to-high level; now that some areas in Shandong have been unblocked, automobile transportation has recovered, downstream enterprises are more motivated to receive goods, and local refineries have improved shipments , the overall inventory fell to low to medium levels. As of this Thursday, the mainstream transaction of low-sulfur coke (about S1.0%) was 5130-5200 yuan/ton, and the mainstream transaction of medium-sulfur coke (about S3.0% and high vanadium) was 3050-3600 yuan/ton; high-sulfur coke High vanadium coke (with a sulfur content of about 4.5%) has a mainstream transaction of 2450-2600 yuan / ton.
Supply side
As of November 10, there were 12 routine shutdowns of coking units nationwide. This week, 3 new coking units were shut down for maintenance, and another set of coking units was put into operation. The national daily output of petroleum coke was 78,080 tons, and the coking operating rate was 65.23%, a decrease of 1.12% from the previous month.
Demand side
Due to the high price of petroleum coke in the main refinery, downstream enterprises are generally less motivated to receive goods, and the coke price of some refineries continues to decline; while in the local refining market, as the epidemic prevention policy in some areas is slightly relaxed, logistics and transportation have recovered slightly, superimposing the raw materials of downstream enterprises. Petroleum coke inventories have been low for a long time, and downstream enterprises have a strong desire to purchase, and a large number of purchases have been made in the market. Some traders have entered the market for short-term operations, which is favorable for the price of refined petroleum coke to rise.
Inventory
The main refinery’s shipments are generally average, downstream enterprises purchase on demand, and the overall petroleum coke inventory is at a median level. With the slight relaxation of the epidemic prevention policy in some regions, the downstream enterprises have entered the market in large quantities to purchase, and the local refinery petroleum coke inventory has dropped as a whole. to mid-low.
(1) Downstream industries
Calcined petroleum coke: The low-sulfur calcined petroleum coke market has stable shipments this week, and the epidemic pressure in Northeast China has eased. The medium and high sulfur calcined petroleum coke market traded well this week, supported by the rebound in the price of petroleum coke in Shandong, and the market price of medium and high sulfur calcined petroleum coke was running at a high level.
Steel: The steel market rose slightly this week. The Baichuan Steel Composite Index was 103.3, up 1 or 1% from November 3. Affected by the market’s optimistic expectations of the epidemic this week, black futures are running strongly. The spot market price rose slightly, and the market sentiment improved slightly, but the overall transaction did not change significantly. At the beginning of the week, the guide price of steel mills basically maintained a stable operation. Although the price of futures snails rose, the market transaction was general, and most merchants had secretly lowered their shipments. The steel mills are producing normally. Due to the fact that traders took the goods in the early stage, the pressure on the factory warehouse was not large, and the pressure on the inventory shifted to the downstream. The arrival of northern resources is small, and orders are basically placed in the market on demand. At present, although the market transaction has improved, in the later stage, the current order for downstream projects is sluggish, the project start-up situation is not good, the terminal demand is not smooth, and the short-term resumption of work is not expected to be obvious. Be cautious, demand may decrease later. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate in the short term.
Prebaked anode
This week, the transaction price of China’s prebaked anode market remained stable. The spot price in Baichuan increased slightly, mainly due to the recovery of the petroleum coke market, the high price of coal tar pitch, and the better cost support. In terms of production, most enterprises are operating at full capacity and the supply is stable. Due to the control of heavy pollution weather in some areas, the production is slightly affected. The downstream electrolytic aluminum starts at a high level and the supply increases, and the demand for prebaked anodes continues to improve.
Silicon metal
The overall price of the silicon metal market declined slightly this week. As of November 10, the average reference price of China’s silicon metal market was 20,730 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton from the price on November 3, a decrease of 0.5%. The price of silicon metal dropped slightly at the beginning of the week, mainly due to the selling of goods by southern traders, and the price of some grades of silicon metal dropped; the market price in the middle and late of the week remained stable due to the increase in cost and less downstream purchases. Southwest China has entered a period of flat and dry water, and electricity prices have risen, and the price of electricity may continue to increase after the Sichuan area enters the dry period. Some companies have plans to shut down their furnaces; Yunnan region continues to have power curbs, and the power curtailment degree has been strengthened. If the situation is poor, the furnace may be shut down in the later stage, and the overall output will be reduced; the epidemic control in Xinjiang is strictly controlled, the transportation of raw materials is difficult and the personnel are insufficient, and the production of most enterprises is affected or even shut down to reduce production.
Cement
The price of raw materials in the national cement market is high, and the price of cement rises more and falls less. The average price of the national cement market in this issue is 461 yuan / ton, and the average market price of last week was 457 yuan / ton, which is 4 yuan / ton higher than the average price of the cement market last week. Repeatedly, some areas are strictly controlled, personnel movement and transportation are restricted, and the downstream external construction progress has slowed down. The market in the northern region is in a relatively weak state. As the weather turns cold, the market has entered the traditional off-season, and most projects have been shut down one after another. Only a few key projects are on schedule, and the overall shipment volume is small. Driven by the rise in coal prices in the southern region, the production costs of enterprises have risen, and some enterprises have implemented staggered kiln shutdowns, which have pushed up cement prices in some areas. Overall, the national cement prices have risen and fallen.
(2) Port market conditions
This week, the average daily shipment of major ports was 28,200 tons, and the total port inventory was 2,104,500 tons, an increase of 4.14% from the previous month.
This week, the imported petroleum coke is mainly concentrated in Shandong Rizhao Port, Weifang Port, Qingdao Port Dongjiakou and other ports. The port petcoke inventory continues to increase. At present, the Dongying area has been unblocked, and the shipment of Guangli Port has returned to normal. Rizhao Port, Weifang Port, etc. Shipping is still fast. This week, the price of refined petroleum coke has rebounded rapidly, the spot trade of petroleum coke at ports has improved, and logistics and transportation in some areas have recovered. Due to the continuous low inventory of raw petroleum coke and the repeated impact of the epidemic, downstream enterprises are more motivated to stock up and replenish stocks. , the demand for petroleum coke is good; at present, most of the petroleum coke arriving at the port is pre-sold in advance, and the port delivery speed is relatively fast. In terms of fuel coke, the follow-up trend of domestic coal prices is still unclear. Some downstream silicon carbide enterprises are restricted by environmental protection and use other products (cleaned coal) to replace high-sulfur projectile coke production. Market shipments of low- and medium-sulfur projectile coke were stable, and prices were temporarily stable. The bidding price of Formosa coke continued to push up this month, but due to the general market conditions of silicon metal, the spot of Formosa coke was trading at a stable price.
In December 2022, Formosa Petrochemical Co., Ltd. won the bid for 1 ship of petroleum coke. The bidding will be launched on November 3 (Thursday), and the bid closing time will be at 10:00 on November 4 (Friday).
The average price of the winning bid (FOB) is about US$297/ton; the shipment date is from December 27,2022 to December 29,2022 from Mailiao Port, Taiwan, and the quantity of petroleum coke per ship is about 6500-7000 ton, and the sulfur content is about 9%. The bidding price is FOB Mailiao Port.
The CIF price of US sulfur 2% projectile coke in November is about 350 US dollars / ton. The CIF price of US sulfur 3% projectile coke in November is about 295-300 US dollars / ton. The U.S. S5%-6% high-sulfur projectile coke in November has a CIF price of around $200-210/ton, and the Saudi projectile coke price in November is around $190-195/ton. The average FOB price of Taiwan coke in December 2022 is around US$297/ton.
Market outlook
Low-sulfur petroleum coke: Affected by the epidemic and other factors, some downstream enterprises are relatively less motivated to receive goods. Baichuan Yingfu expects that the market price of low-sulfur coke will remain stable and move slightly next week, with individual adjustments of around RMB 100/ton. Medium- and high-sulfur petroleum coke: Affected by the downtime of coking units and the different quality of imported crude oil, the overall medium and high-sulfur market of petroleum coke with better trace elements (vanadium <500) is in short supply, while the supply of high-vanadium petroleum coke is abundant and imports are supplemented more. The follow-up room for growth is limited, so Baichuan Yingfu expects that the price of petroleum coke with better trace elements (vanadium <500) still has room to rise, the range is about 100 yuan / ton, the price of high-vanadium petroleum coke is mainly stable, and some coke prices are within a narrow range fluctuation.
Post time: Nov-11-2022