Multiple outbreaks of COVID-19 across the country have spread to many provinces, having a great impact on the market.Some urban logistics and transportation is blocked, and the price of petroleum coke remains high, the market delivery heat has decreased; but on the whole, the downstream construction is rising, the market demand for petroleum coke is good.As of March 15, the reference price of petroleum coke market was 4250 yuan / ton, an increase of 328 yuan / ton or 8.38% from the end of February.
Crude oil has soared, refining costs have increased, and oil coke supply continues to tighten
In addition to the impact of COVID-19 outbreak in 2020, the operating rate is low, the current national coking plant operating rate is low compared with the same period in previous years, 5.63% less than 2019 and 1.41% less than that in 2021.Mainly starting in late February, affected by the war, the international situation tensions, crude oil prices reached $100 / barrel, refinery refinery costs increase, some refinery costs, superposition in 3, April for traditional refinery maintenance season, baichuan surplus fu expected new coking unit maintenance 9 times, affect coking plant capacity of 14.5 million tons / year.
Environmental impact gradually weakens, and downstream demand increases
Since late January, most downstream enterprises in Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Tianjin and other places have been “Winter Olympic Games”, “two sessions”, “Paralympic Games”, “heavy pollution weather” environmental production cuts, production, overall market demand for petroleum coke weakened; since March 11, environmental impact gradually eliminated, early shutdown, production of enterprises have resumed, superimposed downstream enterprises by the high prices, raw material inventory has been low, the market demand for petroleum coke is good.Negative material market support for the oil coke market is strong.
The impact of the epidemic has limited logistics and transportation in some areas
Since March, the outbreak has broken out across the country, creating a grim situation.The outbreak, including Jiangsu, Shandong, Hebei, Liaoning and other major petroleum coke producing areas, has had a great impact on logistics and transportation.As of March 15, COVID-19 patients have been found in Qingdao, Dezhou, Zibo, Binzhou, Weihai, Yantai, Weifang, Rizhao, Panjin, Liaoning Province, and Lianyungang, Jiangsu Province, Shandong Province.At present, many places have clearly issued a notice that personnel from medium-high risk areas or with asterisk travel code will implement 14-day centralized quarantine or home monitoring, and this notice has a great impact on market logistics and transportation.In some areas of the refinery logistics transportation pressure is greater, petroleum coke inventory began to increase.
Imported coke to medium and high sulfur coke, small impact on the market
Since January, there have been few ships arriving at ports, and all petroleum coke at some ports have been sold, with no inventory. Due to the impact of the epidemic, shipments at ports in southern China have been limited, the other major ports have good shipments, and the petroleum coke inventory at ports has been decreasing.According to Baichuan Yingfeng, the subsequent import of oil coke is mainly to the high sulfur oil coke, the impact on the domestic market is limited.
Aftermarket forecast:
Downstream anode material demand is strong, low sulfur supply of petroleum coke is still tight, market inventory remains low, Baichuan Yingfeng is expected to stabilize low sulfur petroleum coke prices in the short term.
Due to the rise of high sulfur oil coke market, refinery refining cost increases, and the traditional maintenance season in March and April, shutdown and maintenance of coking units, the supply of oil coke will continue to decline in the short term; and downstream carbon enterprises affected by environmental protection to resume production, downstream demand for oil coke; but the epidemic, some areas logistics is limited, refinery inventory is increasing, so the overall operation, and some refineries due to the epidemic.Information source: Baichuan Yingfeng
Post time: Mar-16-2022