I. Needle coke market price analysis
After the National Day, the price of needle coke market in China rose. As of October 13, the average price of needle coke electrode coke in China was 9466, up 4.29% from the same period last week and 4.29% from the same period last month. , An increase of 60.59% from the beginning of the year, an increase of 68.22% from the same period last year; the average price of negative coke market is 6000, an increase of 7.14% from the same period last week, an increase of 13.39% from the same period last month, an increase of 39.53% from the beginning of the year, and an increase of 41.18 from the same period last year. %, it is reported that the main reasons are:
1. The price of upstream raw materials continues to rise, and the cost is high
Coal tar pitch: the market price of coal tar pitch keeps rising after the holiday. As of October 13th, the price of soft asphalt was 5349 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.35% from before the National Day and an increase of 92.41% from the beginning of the year. Based on the current raw material prices, the cost of coal needle coke is high, and profits are basically inverted. Judging from the current market, the start of coal tar deep processing has slowly increased, but the overall start is still not high, and the shortage of supply has formed a certain support for market prices.
Oil slurry: After the National Day holiday, the market price of oil slurry was greatly affected by the fluctuation of crude oil, and the price rose sharply. As of October 13, the price of medium and high sulfur slurry was 3930 yuan/ton, which was an increase of 16.66% from before the holiday and an increase of 109.36% from the beginning of the year.
At the same time, according to relevant companies, the supply of high-quality low-sulfur oil slurry market is tight, and prices have risen stably. The cost of oil-based needle coke has also remained high. As of the date of the date, the average price of mainstream manufacturers is only slightly higher than the cost line.
2. The market starts at a low level, which is good for the price to go up
Starting from May 2021, China’s needle coke market has continued to decline, which is good for prices. According to statistics, the operating rate in September 2021 has remained at around 44.17%. According to the feedback from the coke enterprises, the needle coke enterprises are less affected by it, and the production enterprises maintain normal operation. Specifically, the start-up performance of oil-based needle coke and coal-based needle coke has diverged. The oil-based needle coke market started to operate at a mid-to-high level, and only some plants in a plant in Liaoning were discontinued; the price of coal-based needle coke raw materials was higher than that of oil-based needle coke. High coke, high cost, and poor shipments due to market preference, coal-based needle coke manufacturers have halted production and reduced production more to ease the pressure. As of the end of September, the market’s average start-up was only 33.70% up, and overhaul capacity accounted for coal. More than 50% of the total production capacity.
3. The price of imported needle coke is raised
Starting from October 2021, the quotations of imported oil-based needle coke have generally been increased due to rising costs. According to company feedback, the current supply of imported needle coke continues to be tight, and the quotation of imported needle coke has risen, which is good for domestic needle coke prices. Boost market confidence
II. Needle coke market forecast
On the supply side: some of the new devices will be put into operation in the fourth quarter of 2021. As shown in the table below, the planned production capacity will reach 550,000 tons in the fourth quarter of 2021, but it will take some time to fully put into the market. Therefore, the market supply will remain in the short term. The status quo may increase by the end of 2021.
In terms of demand, since September, some areas have severely restricted production and electricity, and at the same time, combined with factors such as environmental protection and production restrictions in the autumn and winter heating season and the Winter Olympics, downstream graphite electrodes and anode materials have a greater impact, which may affect the shipment of needle coke in the future. Influence. Specifically, according to the calculation of the operating rate, the operating rate of graphite electrodes in October is expected to drop by about 14% under the influence of power restrictions. At the same time, the negative electrode graphitization capacity will have a greater impact. The overall production of negative electrode material companies is also affected, and the supply of negative electrode materials is tight. May be exacerbated.
In terms of prices, on the one hand, the prices of raw material soft asphalt and oil slurry will continue to rise in the short term, and the cost of needle coke is supported by strong; on the other hand, the market is currently operating at low to mid-range, and the supply of high-quality needle coke is still tight and the supply side is good. In summary, the price of needle coke is still expected to increase to a certain extent, with the operating range of cooked coke being 8500-12000 yuan/ton, and green coke 6,000-7000 yuan/ton. (Information source: Baichuan Information)
Post time: Oct-14-2021