Petroleum coke shipments from refineries during the National Day holiday were good, and most companies shipped according to orders. Petroleum coke shipments from main refineries were generally good. PetroChina’s low-sulfur coke continued to increase at the beginning of the month. Shipments from local refineries were generally stable, with prices fluctuating. now. The downstream carbon production is partially restricted, and the demand is generally stable.
At the beginning of October, the price of low-sulfur coke from Northeast China Petroleum increased by 200-400 yuan/ton, and the price of Lanzhou Petrochemical in the northwest region rose by 50 during the holiday. The prices of other refineries were stable. The Xinjiang epidemic has basically no impact on refinery shipments, and refineries are running with low inventory. Sinopec’s medium and high-sulfur coke and petroleum coke were shipped normally, and the refinery shipped well. Gaoqiao Petrochemical began to shut down the entire plant for maintenance for about 50 days on October 8, affecting about 90,000 tons of output. During the CNOOC low-sulfur coke holiday, the pre-orders were executed and shipments remained good. Taizhou Petrochemical’s petroleum coke production remained low. The local petroleum coke market has overall stable shipments. The price of petroleum coke in some refineries fell first and then rebounded slightly. During the holiday period, the price of high-priced petroleum coke dropped by 30-120 yuan/ton, and the price of low-priced petroleum coke increased by 30-250 yuan/ Ton, the refinery with a larger increase is mainly due to the improvement of indicators. The coking plants that had been suspended in the previous period have resumed operations one after another, the supply of petroleum coke in the local refining market has recovered, and the downstream carbon companies are less motivated to receive goods and receive goods on demand, and the local refining petroleum coke inventory has rebounded compared with the previous period.
In late October, Sinopec Guangzhou Petrochemical’s coking plant is expected to be overhauled. Guangzhou Petrochemical’s petroleum coke is mainly used for its own use, with low external sales. The Shijiazhuang refinery’s coking plant is expected to start at the end of the month. The output of Jinzhou Petrochemical, Jinxi Petrochemical, and Dagang Petrochemical in the northeast region of PetroChina’s refinery remained low, and the production and sales in the northwestern region were stable. CNOOC Taizhou Petrochemical is expected to resume normal production in the near future. It is estimated that the six refineries will start operations in mid-to-late October. The operating rate of the geosmelting plant is expected to increase to about 68% by the end of October, an increase of 7.52% from the pre-holiday period. Taken together, the operating rate of coking plants is expected to reach 60% at the end of October, an increase of 0.56% from the pre-holiday period. The production in October was basically the same month-on-month, and the output of petroleum coke gradually increased from November to December, and the supply of petroleum coke gradually increased.
In the downstream, the price of pre-baked anodes rose by 380 yuan/ton this month, which was less than the average increase of 500-700 yuan/ton for raw petroleum coke in September. The production of pre-baked anodes in Shandong was reduced by 10.89%, and the production of pre-baked anodes in Inner Mongolia was reduced by 13.76%. The continuous environmental protection and production restrictions in Hebei Province resulted in a 29.03% reduction in production of pre-baked anodes. The calcined coke plants in Lianyungang, Taizhou and other places in Jiangsu are affected by the “power curtailment” and local demand is limited. The recovery time of the Lianyungang calcined coke plant in Jiangsu is to be determined. The output of the calcined coke plant in Taizhou is expected to resume in mid-October. The production limit policy for the calcined coke market in 2+26 cities is expected to be introduced in October. Commercial calcined coke production capacity within the “2+26″ city 4.3 million tons, accounting for 32.19% of the total commercial calcined coke production capacity, and monthly output of 183,600 tons, accounting for 29.46% of the total output. Pre-baked anodes rose slightly in October, and the industry’s losses and deficits increased again. Under high cost, some companies took the initiative to restrict or suspend production. The policy area is frequently overweight, and the heating season is superimposed on power restrictions, energy consumption and other factors. The pre-baked anode enterprises will face production pressure, and the protective policies for export-oriented enterprises in some regions may be cancelled. The capacity of pre-baked anodes within the “2+26″ city is 10.99 million tons, accounting for 37.55% of the total capacity of pre-baked anodes, and the monthly output is 663,000 tons, accounting for 37.82%. The production capacity of pre-baked anodes and calcined coke in the “2+26″ city area is relatively large. This year’s Winter Olympics expects that the environmental protection production restriction policy will be strengthened, and the downstream demand of petroleum coke will be greatly restricted.
In summary, the production of petcoke in the fourth quarter has gradually increased, and downstream demand is facing a risk of decline. In the long run, the price of petcoke is expected to decline in the fourth quarter. In the short term in October, CNPC and CNOOC low-sulfur coke shipments were good, and PetroChina’s petroleum coke in the northwestern region continued to rise. Sinopec’s petroleum coke prices were strong, and local refineries’ petroleum coke inventory rebounded from the previous period. Local refined petroleum coke prices are downside risks. Larger.
Post time: Oct-11-2021