During the National Day refinery oil coke shipment is good, most enterprises according to the order shipment, the main refinery oil coke shipment is generally good, petrochina low sulfur coke continued to increase at the beginning of the month, local refinery shipments are generally stable, prices are mixed. Downstream carbon production is locally limited and demand is generally stable.
At the beginning of October, the price of low sulfur coke in northeast China rose 200-400 yuan/ton, and lanzhou Petrochemical in northwest China rose 50 yuan during the holiday. The price of other refineries remained stable. Sinopec medium and high sulfur coke normal delivery of petroleum coke, refinery shipment is good, Gaoqiao Petrochemical began on October 8, the plant shutdown for maintenance for about 50 days, affecting the output of about 90,000 tons. Cnooc low sulfur coke during the holiday to execute early orders, shipments remain good, Taizhou petrochemical petroleum coke production is still at a low. The overall shipment of refinery oil coke market is stable, some refinery oil coke prices fell after a small rebound, during the holiday high oil coke prices down 30-120 yuan/ton, low-price oil coke prices up 30-250 yuan/ton, the main increase in the refinery index is improved. Coking units that had been shut down in the early stage have resumed operation. The supply of petroleum coke in the refinery market has been restored. The downstream carbon enterprises are less enthusiastic about receiving goods and receive goods on demand.
In late October, guangzhou Petrochemical coking unit of Sinopec is expected to be overhauled. Guangzhou Petrochemical petroleum coke is mainly for self-use, with little foreign sales. Shijiazhuang refinery coking unit is expected to start work at the end of the month. Production of Jinzhou Petrochemical, Jinxi Petrochemical and Dagang Petrochemical in northeast China remained low, while production and sales in northwest China remained stable. Cnooc Taizhou Petrochemical is expected to resume normal production in the near future. It is expected that six refineries will start operation in the middle and late October, and the operation rate of the local refinery is expected to increase to about 68% by the end of October, 7.52% higher than before the holiday. Comprehensive view of coking device operating rate at the end of October, the national coking operating rate is expected to reach 60%, compared with the pre-holiday increase of 0.56%. Production in October was basically flat on a monthly basis, petroleum coke production in November-December gradually improved, and petroleum coke supply gradually increased.
Downstream, the price of pre-baked anode rose 380 yuan/ton this month, less than the average increase of raw petroleum coke in September 500-700 yuan/ton. The yield of prebaked anode in Shandong province was reduced by 10.89%, that in Inner Mongolia by 13.76%, and that in Hebei Province by 29.03% due to the continuous environmental protection limit. The burning plants in Lianyungang, Taizhou and other places of Jiangsu province are affected by “power rationing”, local demand is limited. The production of Jiangsu Lianyungang Burning plant is expected to resume in the middle of October. The production limit policy for burning market in 2+26 cities is expected to be issued in October. The commercial burning capacity in “2+26″ cities is 4.3 million tons, accounting for 32.19% of the total commercial burning capacity, and the monthly output is 183,600 tons. Accounting for 29.46% of the total output. Pre-baked anode rose slightly in October, and the industry deficit increased again. Under high cost, some enterprises took the initiative to limit production or stop production. Due to the frequent increase of policies, the superimposed power limit in heating season, double control of energy consumption and other factors, pre-baked anode enterprises will face production pressure, and the protective policies for export-oriented enterprises in some regions may be cancelled. The capacity of pre-baked anode in “2+26″ cities is 10.99 million tons, accounting for 37.55% of the total capacity of pre-baked anode, and the monthly output is 663,000 tons, accounting for 37.82%. The production capacity of pre-baked anode and burnt coke in “2+26″ cities is relatively large. It is expected that the environmental protection production restriction policy will be intensified in this year’s Winter Olympics, and the downstream demand of petroleum coke will be greatly restricted.
In summary, the production of petroleum coke in the fourth quarter is gradually improving, and the downstream demand is facing the risk of decline. In the long run, the price of petroleum coke in the fourth quarter is expected to decline. In the short term in October, petrochina, CNOOC low sulfur coke shipment is good, and the petroleum coke in the northwest region still has a rise, sinopec petroleum coke price is firm, local refinery petroleum coke inventory has recovered earlier, to refine petroleum coke price downside risk is greater.
Post time: Oct-13-2021