From 2018 to 2022, the capacity of delayed coking units in China experienced a trend of increasing first and then decreasing, and the capacity of delayed coking units in China showed a trend of increasing year by year before 2019. By the end of 2022, the capacity of delayed coking units in China was about 149.15 million tons, and some units had been transferred and put into operation. On November 6th, the primary feeding of 2 million tons/year delayed coking unit of Shenghong Refining and Chemical Integration Project (Shenghong Refining and Chemical) succeeded and produced qualified products. The capacity of delayed coking unit in East China continued to expand.
The overall domestic petroleum coke consumption showed an upward trend from 2018 to 2022, and the total domestic petroleum coke consumption remained above 40 million tons from 2021 to 2022. In 2021, the downstream demand increased significantly and the consumption growth rate soared. However, in 2022, some downstream enterprises were cautious in purchasing due to the impact of the epidemic, and the growth rate of petroleum coke consumption declined slightly to about 0.7%.
In the field of pre-baked anode, there has been an increasing trend in the past five years. On the one hand, the domestic demand has increased, and on the other hand, the export of pre-baked anode has also shown an increasing trend. In the field of graphite electrode, the supply-side reform from 2018 to 2019 is still warm, and the demand for graphite electrode is good. However, with the weakening of the steel market, the advantage of electric arc furnace steelmaking disappears, the demand for graphite electrode decreases significantly. In the field of carburizing agent, the consumption of petroleum coke has been relatively stable in recent years, but in 2022, the consumption of petroleum coke will increase significantly due to the increase of carburizing agent as a by-product of graphitization. The demand for petroleum coke in the fuel field mainly depends on the price difference between coal and petroleum, so it fluctuates greatly. In 2022, the petroleum coke price will remain high, and the price advantage of coal will increase, so the petroleum coke consumption will decrease. The market of silicon metal and silicon carbide in the past two years is good, and the overall consumption increases, but in 2022, it is weaker than last year, and the consumption of petroleum coke declines slightly. The field of anode material, supported by national policy, has been increasing year by year in recent years. In terms of exporting calcined char, with the increase of domestic demand and relatively high domestic profit, the export business of calcined char has been reduced.
Future market forecast:
Starting from 2023, the demand of domestic petroleum coke industry may further increase. With the increase or elimination of some refinery capacity, in the next five years, the annual production capacity of 2024 will peak and then decline to a stable state, and the annual production capacity of 2027 is expected to reach 149.6 million tons/year. At the same time, with the rapid expansion of the production capacity of anode materials and other industries, the demand has reached an unprecedented height. It is expected that the domestic demand of petroleum coke industry will maintain an annual fluctuation of 41 million tons in the next five years.
In terms of the demand end market, the overall trading is good, the consumption of anode materials and graphitization field continues to increase, the steel demand of aluminum carbon market is strong, the imported coke part enters the carbon market to supplement the supply, and the petroleum coke market still presents a supply-demand game situation.
Post time: Nov-15-2022