On the raw material side of negative electrode materials, PetroChina and CNOOC refineries continue to be under pressure on low-sulfur coke shipments, and market transaction prices continue to decline. At present, the cost of artificial graphite raw materials and graphitization processing fees has decreased, and the production capacity of the supply side has been released. The production capacity of low-end and mid-end models of artificial graphite in the market has gradually become excessive, which has led to a decline in the prices of these products. The mainstream negative electrode material natural graphite is 39,000-42,000 yuan/ton, artificial graphite is 50,000-60,000 yuan/ton, and mesocarbon microspheres is 60-75,000 yuan/ton.
From the perspective of cost, needle coke and low-sulfur coke, the raw material of artificial graphite, account for about 20%-30% of the cost structure, and the price of raw materials has declined since the third quarter.
The market price of low-sulfur petroleum coke fluctuated partially, and the price of 2# in East China and South China fell by 200 yuan/ton, and the current price is 4600-5000 yuan/ton. In terms of main business, Huizhou CNOOC 1#B fell 600 yuan/ton to 4750 yuan/ton. Refineries in Shandong fell sporadically, and shipments were partially blocked. The decline in the price of petroleum coke has improved the profit margin of calcined coke enterprises, and the operation of calcined coke enterprises has been stable. The price of low-sulfur oil slurry, the raw material of needle coke, continued to fall and is currently at 5,200-5,220 yuan/ton. Some oil-based needle coke companies temporarily suspended coke production units, the overall supply of needle coke is sufficient, coal-based companies continue to suffer losses, and the start time is still to be determined.
The cost of graphitization processing accounted for nearly 50%. In the third quarter, due to the release of supply-side production capacity, the market gap gradually narrowed, and processing fees began to decline.
From the perspective of supply, the third quarter began to enter a period of explosive growth in negative electrode production. The initial negative electrode production projects gradually reached production capacity and new projects were released intensively. The market supply increased rapidly.
However, the production cycle of artificial graphite is long, and the price of anode and graphitization have been negotiated for several quarters this year. In the third quarter, the anode factory and the downstream are in a price game stage. Although the product price has loosened, it does not mean that the price has fallen substantially.
In the fourth quarter, especially starting from November, battery factories have been holding more storage operations, and the demand for anodes has weakened; and in terms of supply, in addition to the new production capacity of traditional anode manufacturers gradually released this year, there are also some small or new anode factories that have added new capacity this year. With the release of production capacity, the negative electrode capacity of low-end and mid-end models in the market is gradually overcapacitated; the cost of end-coke and graphitization costs have decreased, which has led to a comprehensive decline in the price of low-end and mid-end negative electrode products.
At present, some low-end and middle-end products with strong universality are still cutting prices, while some high-end products with strong technical advantages from major manufacturers are not so quickly surplus or replaced, and prices will remain stable in the short term.
The nominal production capacity of the negative electrode is somewhat excess, but due to the influence of capital, technology, and downstream cycle, some negative electrode enterprises have delayed the production time.
Looking at the negative electrode market as a whole, due to the influence of the subsidy policy, the growth of the terminal new energy vehicle market is limited, and most battery factories mainly consume inventory. It also coincides with the date of signing the contract next year.
Graphitization: The logistics and transportation problems caused by the impact of the epidemic in Inner Mongolia and other regions have been alleviated, but due to the impact of production capacity and raw materials, the price of graphitization OEM processing is still on a downward trend, and the multi-cost support for artificial graphite anode materials continues to weaken. At present, in order to control costs and reduce the risk of supply interruption, many anode factories choose to lay out a complete industrial chain to enhance their competitiveness. At present, the mainstream multi-graphitization price is 17,000-19,000 yuan/ton. Supplies of holding furnaces and crucibles are abundant and prices are stable.
Post time: Jan-04-2023