First, cost
Positive factors: the price of imported needle coke in China is raised by $100 / ton, and the price will be implemented from July, which may drive the price of high-quality needle coke in China to rise along with it. The production cost of ultra-high power graphite electrode is still rising at a high level.
Bad factors: low sulfur oil coke market price rise too fast, the recent low sulfur oil coke market is weak, the price gradually return to rational. Low sulfur calcined burning cost side weakening, coupled with low sulfur calcined burning refinery delivery is not smooth, the price is also falling, leading to obvious wait-and-see sentiment in the graphite electrode market.
In general: although the price of low sulfur petroleum coke has fallen, but according to the same period last year there are still 68.12% increase; The price of domestic needle coke for graphite electrode raw material is high, and the price of imported needle coke has risen. At present, the price of domestic needle coke for graphite electrode is about 9000-10000 yuan/ton. The price of imported needle coke is about USD1600-1800 / ton, and the price of coal pitch fluctuates in a high and narrow range. The factory reference of modified asphalt used for graphite products is 5650 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive cost of graphite electrode market is still high.
The picture
Second, the supply side
Recent market supply of graphite electrode still has good support, the specific analysis is as follows:
1. Graphite electrode market overall inventory is still maintained at a low and reasonable level, graphite electrode enterprises said that enterprises have no excess inventory accumulation, graphite electrode market as a whole basically no inventory and no pressure.
2. It is understood that at present, some graphite electrode enterprises say that some specifications of graphite electrode are out of stock (mainly for ultra-high power 450mm), which shows that the supply of ultra-high power small and medium-sized specifications is still weak and tight.
3. In June, according to the feedback part of the mainstream of graphite electrode enterprises of China high quality needle coke resources supply is tight, and because a British needle coke enterprises May 2 – maintenance, import needle coke about in July and August to port, result in a shortage of needle coke supply more Chinese imports, as a result, part of the mainstream ultra high power graphite electrode enterprises large size production, At present, the supply of ultra-high specification graphite electrode in the market is in a tight balance.
4. Affected by the price increase of China’s imported needle coke, some graphite electrode enterprises are reluctant to sell, and the overall supply of graphite electrode market is weak and tight.
Third, the downstream demand
positive
1. Recently, the start-up of electric furnace steel mills downstream of graphite electrode is relatively stable. The average operating rate of electric furnace steel mills has always been maintained at about 70%, and the stiffness of graphite electrode needs to be stable.
2. Recently, the export market of graphite electrode is stable. According to the statistics of customs data, in May 2021, the export volume of China’s graphite electrode was 34,600 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 5.36% and a year-on-year increase of 30.53%. From January to May 2021, China’s export of graphite electrodes totaled 178,500 tons, an increase of 25.07% over the same period last year. And it is understood that some graphite electrode enterprises also expressed good export and export market is relatively stable.
3. Recent silicon metal market furnace volume gradually increased, as of June 17, the number of silicon metal furnace compared with the end of May increased by 10, Baichuan statistical furnace number 652, the number of furnace 246. The demand for ordinary power graphite electrode is stable, medium and small increase.
negative
1. Electric furnace steel, due to the recent off-season in industry, timber sales resistance, combined with recent timber prices continue to weak, and the timber price decline is greater than the material scrap steel prices decline, electric furnace steel profits under compression, combined with the recent low sulphur petroleum coke prices, steel mills for graphite electrode price wait-and-see mood, there is a demand for sourcing graphite electrode behavior.
2. Graphite electrode export ship freight price is still high, to a certain extent, hinder the export of graphite electrode.
Aftermarket forecast: although the recent graphite electrode market has a certain wait-and-see mood, but the overall production cost of the graphite electrode market is still high, the superposition of the graphite electrode supply side is still weak and tight, good mainstream graphite electrode enterprises offer firm, is expected to stabilize the overall graphite electrode market price operation. In addition, the rising price of imported needle coke supports the cost of graphite electrode. Under the influence of the mentality of mainstream graphite electrode enterprises, there is still a bullish sentiment on the ultra-high power and large specification graphite electrode.
Post time: Jun-25-2021