After the National Day, the market price of graphite electrodes changed rapidly, and the market as a whole showed a rising atmosphere. The cost pressure is superimposed on the tight supply, and graphite electrode companies are reluctant to sell, and the price of graphite electrodes has begun to rebound upward. As of October 20, 2021, the average market price of mainstream graphite electrodes in China was 21,107 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.05% from the same period last month. The influencing factors are as follows:
1. The price of raw materials has risen, and the cost of graphite electrode companies has increased. Since September, the prices of upstream raw materials for graphite electrodes in China have continued to rise.
So far, the price of low-sulfur petroleum coke in Fushun and Daqing has risen to 5,000 yuan/ton, and the average market price of low-sulfur petroleum coke is 4,825 yuan/ton, which is about 58% higher than the beginning of the year; the price of domestic needle coke for graphite electrodes has also increased. There has been a significant increase. The average market price of needle coke is about 9466 yuan/ton, which is about 62% higher than the price at the beginning of the year, and the imported and domestic high-quality needle coke resources are tight, and the price of needle coke is still expected to increase strongly; coal tar pitch The market has always maintained a strong operating state. The price of coal tar pitch has increased by about 71% compared with the beginning of the year, and the pressure on the cost of graphite electrodes is obvious.
2. Electricity and production are limited, and the supply of graphite electrodes is expected to continue to shrink
Since mid-September, various provinces have gradually implemented power curtailment policies, and graphite electrode companies have restricted their production. Superimposed on the autumn and winter environmental protection production restrictions and the Winter Olympics environmental protection requirements, it is expected that the production restriction of graphite electrode companies may continue until March 2022, and the graphite electrode market supply may continue to shrink. According to feedback from graphite electrode companies, the supply of ultra-high-power small and medium-sized products has shown a tight state.
3. The increase in exports and the stable preference for graphite electrode market demand in the fourth quarter
Exports: On the one hand, due to the final anti-dumping ruling of the Eurasian Union, which will formally impose anti-dumping duties on China’s graphite electrodes on January 1, 2022, overseas companies hope to increase stocks before the final ruling date; on the other hand, the fourth quarter is approaching During the Spring Festival, many overseas companies plan to stock up in advance.
Domestic market: In the fourth quarter, the downstream steel mills of graphite electrodes are still under pressure to limit production, and the start of steel plants is still restricted. However, the power limit in some regions is relaxed, and the start of some electric furnace steel plants has rebounded slightly. The demand for graphite electrode purchases may increase slightly. In addition, steel mills are also paying more attention to the power curtailment and production restrictions of graphite electrode companies, and the price of graphite electrodes is on the rise, which may stimulate steel mills to increase purchases.
Market outlook: The power restriction policies of various provinces are still being implemented, and the pressure of environmental protection and production restriction in autumn and winter is superimposed. The graphite electrode market supply is expected to continue to shrink. Under the influence of the pressure of steel mills to restrict production, the demand for graphite electrodes is the main demand, and the export market is stable and preferred. Favor the market demand for graphite electrodes. If the pressure on the production cost of graphite electrodes continues to increase, the price of graphite electrodes is expected to rise steadily.
Source: Baichuan Yingfu
Post time: Oct-21-2021