After the National Day, the graphite electrode market price changes quickly, the market as a whole presents a push up atmosphere. Cost pressure overlay tight supply, graphite electrode enterprises more reluctant to sell sentiment, graphite electrode prices began to rebound. As of October 20, 2021, the average price of mainstream graphite electrode market in China is 21,107 yuan/ton, up 4.05% compared with the same period last month. The influencing factors are as follows:
1, raw material prices rise, graphite electrode enterprises cost pressure. Since September, the price of upstream raw materials of graphite electrode in China has continued to rise.
So far, the price of fushun and Daqing low sulfur petroleum coke has risen to 5000 yuan/ton, the average price of low sulfur petroleum coke market is 4825 yuan/ton, according to the price of about 58% higher than the beginning of the year; The price of domestic needle coke for graphite electrode has also increased significantly. The average price of needle coke in the market is about 9,466 yuan/ton, which is about 62% higher than the price at the beginning of the year. Moreover, the resources of imported and domestic high-quality needle coke are tight, and the price of needle coke is still expected to increase strongly. The coal asphalt market has always maintained a strong running state, the coal asphalt price increased by 71% compared with the beginning of the year, graphite electrode cost surface pressure is obvious.
2, power limit production, graphite electrode supply surface is expected to continue to shrink
Since the middle of September, provinces have gradually implemented the power restriction policy, graphite electrode production is limited. Overlay autumn and winter environmental protection production limit and the Winter Olympics environmental protection requirements, it is expected that the production of graphite electrode enterprises is limited or continue to March 2022, graphite electrode market supply or continue to shrink. According to the feedback of graphite electrode enterprises, the supply of medium and small specifications of ultra-high power has been tight.
3, export increased, the fourth quarter graphite electrode market demand is stable preference
Export: On the one hand, due to the impact of the Eurasian Union’s final anti-dumping ruling that anti-dumping duties will be formally imposed on Graphite electrodes from China starting from January 1, 2022, overseas enterprises hope to increase stock before the final ruling date; On the other hand, the fourth quarter is approaching the Spring Festival, overseas enterprises are planning to stock up in advance.
Domestic market: graphite electrode downstream steel mills in the fourth quarter production limit pressure is still large, the start of steel mills is still restricted, but some areas of power restrictions relaxed, some electric furnace steel mills start up slightly, graphite electrode procurement demand or a small increase. In addition, steel companies also pay more attention to graphite electrode power limit, production limit, and graphite electrode prices are rising, or stimulate steel to increase procurement.
Aftermarket forecast: provincial power restriction policy is still in implementation, overlay autumn and winter environmental protection production limit pressure, graphite electrode market supply side is expected to continue to shrink, steel production limit pressure under the influence of graphite electrode demand is given priority to, export market stability in preference, good graphite electrode market demand side. If the pressure of production cost of graphite electrode continues to increase, it is expected that the price of graphite electrode is stable and upward.
Post time: Oct-21-2021