Abstract
1. General view
Graphitization: release capacity by the middle of next year
Raw materials: the next two years are expected to be high volatility
2. Difference and application of coal needle coke and oil needle coke:
Different raw materials: oil – based oil slurry, coal – based coal asphalt.
Different applications: oil needle coke, coal needle coke coke used for (ultra) high power electrode; Oil needle coke raw and cooked coke for the negative electrode.
Development direction: Coal series may develop in the future.
3. Supply and demand pattern of petroleum coke: the three application directions of downstream electrode + pre-baked anode + negative electrode are all on the increase, while the supply side does not expand production or even reduce quantity, leading to high prices and imported products may not be able to meet the demand.
4. Anode plant expansion upstream: Zhongke Electric and Anqing Petrochemical have signed a strategic cooperation, but there is no real equity participation or investment.
5. Negative coke ratio: high-end with pure needle coke, mixed at the middle end, low-end with pure petroleum coke. Needle coke 30-40%, petroleum coke 60-70%. A ton of negative electrode with pure petroleum coke 1.6-1.7 tons.
6. Continuous graphitization: the current progress is not ideal, similar to diaphragm industry, but also rely on equipment to survive, the future breakthrough can reduce energy consumption and shipment days.
Q&A
1. Supply and demand and price
Q: Supply and demand pattern and price shortage of low sulfur coke?
A: 1 million tons of low-sulfur coke will be shipped this year, accounting for 60%. With the 60% yield, 60/0.6=1 million tons of low-sulfur coke will be in demand. Demand exceeds supply, leading to price rise, and the price is more than 8000 yuan
Q: Next year’s supply and demand pattern, price situation?
A: Low sulfur coke (common petroleum coke) has three applications: electrode, prebaked anode and negative electrode. All three are growing. The supply side has not expanded or even reduced production, leading to high prices
Q: Q2 coke enterprises have price increases, there is downward transmission
A: Ningde Times and BYD will not take full responsibility, but will take part of it. The cathode factory will take part of it. The second-line battery factory can conduct it. Look at the net profit per ton, combined with graphitization ratio, coke price is not so obvious
Q: What is the amplitude of Q2 negative material on average?
A: Relatively small, 10%, basically unchanged graphitization, Q1 low sulfur coke about 5000 yuan, Q2 average 8000 yuan,
Q: Supply and demand outlook of downstream application of petroleum coke
A: (1) Domestic demand exceeds supply: negative pole growth is the fastest, 40%+ growth of petroleum coke, petroleum coke in the next two years are in high shock, because domestic petrochina, Sinopec production expansion is less, domestic production of 30 million tons A year, 12% is low sulfur coke, can not meet domestic demand.
(2) Import supplement: We will also import coke from Indonesia, Romania, Russia and India. In the test, the progress is relatively slow, which may not be able to meet the demand of making negative electrode
(3) Price judgment: the low point of last year was in March, and petroleum coke was 3000 yuan/ton. The probability of returning to this price is relatively small
(4) Future direction: with the increasing demand for electric vehicles, less and less oil series coke is used, and coal series is a possible direction
Q: Medium coke supply and demand pattern?
A: Medium sulfur coke is also tight, for example, 1 million tons of anode, 10% loss of graphitization, 1.1 million tons of graphitization, 1 ton of graphitization needs 3 tons of medium sulfur coke, need 3.3 million tons of medium sulfur coke to support
Q: Are there any negative plants supplying petroleum coke upstream?
A: Zhongke Electric has signed A strategic cooperation with Anqing Petrochemical. I have never heard of the real equity participation or investment
Q: What is the price difference between small factories and large factories such as Shanshan and Kaijin?
A 
1) the negative industry cannot simply calculate the price difference. There are only one or two common products in the negative industry, most of which are personalized products.
(2) Small factories have no advantages in general products, so they must lower prices to cater to the market. If small factories have accumulated technology and study high-end products and personalized products, they can create advantages. If large factories do not do personalized products, they can only do general products.
2, petroleum coke classification and application
Q: What are the requirements for upstream material coke of various negative poles?
A: (1) Classification: there are four sources of negative coke, low sulfur petroleum coke, oily needle coke, coal needle coke, coal asphalt coke.
(2) proportion: low sulfur coke accounted for 60%, needle coke 20-30%, the rest is coal asphalt coke.
Q: What is the classification of jiao?
A: Mainly divided into petroleum and coal, oil can be divided into ordinary petroleum coke, needle coke; Coal can be divided into ordinary coke, needle coke, asphalt coke
Q: How much petroleum coke does a ton of negative electrode use
A: Pure petroleum coke, 1 divided by 0.6-0.65, needs 1.6-1.7 tons
A: (1) different raw materials: (1) oil, oil refining to choose A higher grade of slurry, simple processing is petroleum coke, if through gas and sulfur coke, can be drawn into needle coke; ② Coal measures, similarly, select high grade coal asphalt
(2) different applications: (1) oil needle coke, coal needle coke coke used for (super) high power electrode; ② Oil needle coke raw, cooked coke for negative, coal with less, but there are also manufacturers in use such as Zichen, Shanshan, Kaijin, after the coal may increase the application, China is a coal producing country
Q: The advantage of coal needle coke
A: Oil-series needle coke is about 2000-3000 yuan more expensive than coal-series needle coke. Coal-series needle coke has price advantage
Q: Future application prospect of medium sulfur petroleum coke
A: The negative electrode is still used for energy storage, with low energy storage requirements and less power
Q: Is there any difference in performance when used on the negative electrode
A: Coal measure needle coke difference is not big, Zichen, Chinese fir are used, coal measure ordinary asphalt coke can also be used in energy storage
Q: Is it difficult to make needle coke from petroleum coke?
A: Oil needle coke production capacity of 1.18 million tons, the process is not very difficult, through drawing coke into needle coke, mainly choose A better slurry to do, the current problem is that the negative enterprises and upstream needle coke exchange is not A lot, if A lot of cooperation, the subsequent research and development, cooperation should be done
Q: Will the materials be mixed?
A: Three routes: pure petroleum coke, pure needle coke, petroleum coke + needle coke. Pure petroleum coke has good kinetic performance, easy graphitization, high capacity and high compaction, and the two are complementary. The high end uses pure needle coke, the middle end uses mixed, the low end uses pure petroleum coke.
Q: What is the matching ratio
A: Needle coke 30-40%, petroleum coke 60-70%
3, carbon and silicon anode
Q: What is the influence of the development of silicon carbon anode on petroleum coke and needle coke?
A: (1) Dosage: last year, 3500 tons of silicon monomer, 80% of Beitre volume is the largest, cylinder used more, Panasonic, LG used silicon oxygen, Samsung used nano-silicon. Company C needs mass production of square shell, which has been delayed. Next year’s Q1 mass production will be 10GWH, which needs about 1000 tons according to 10% blending.
(2) Soft package: because of the expansion of silicon, it is difficult to apply
(3) silicon: or with the way of mixing, Panasonic 4-5 points of silicon oxygen, 60% natural +40% artificial graphite (petroleum coke), can also be mixed with needle coke, mainly according to product performance
Q: Is the silicon in the carbon anode high purity silicon?
A: One is silicon oxygen and the other is nano-silicon.
(1) silicon oxygen: silicon + silicon dioxide hot mixing reaction into silica, silica is everywhere, the requirements of silicon is not high, buy ordinary silicon metal can be, the price of 17,000-18,000.
(2) nano-silicon: purity of 99.99% (4 9) or more, in the photovoltaic over the negative electrode requirements, purity of more than 6 9.
4. Advantages and disadvantages of Sunstone
Q: Is there any advantage for traders to do negative pole, such as Socom?
A 1) suotong procures 4 million tons of petroleum coke A year, and the whole negative industry procures 1 million tons, which is 4 times larger. It has the advantage of volume. There are few direct contacts with CNPC and sinopec, mainly traders, because trade is more discussed
(2) industry price trend: the oil coke industry at the beginning of the year and the end of the price is high, because to stock up, in May and June, low sulfur, medium sulfur oil coke fell 10-15%, because of more inventory, in October and began to stock up, the price will rise again
Q: Will negative manufacturers buy petroleum coke directly? Where is Sotone’s advantage?
A: Most of them are still bought from traders. The volume is too small to be traded with CNPC and Sinopec. Both high, middle and low sulfur coke are produced
5, artificial graphite and natural graphite
Q: Use of natural graphite
A 1) most of them are used abroad. LG power uses half artificial and half natural. Large domestic factories B and C also use part of natural, which is about 10%
(2) defects of natural graphite: not modified natural graphite has more problems, such as large expansion, poor circulation performance.
(3) Trend judgment: if the natural is slowly used in China, it is suggested to use it from low-end cars. It will be easier to have problems with high-end cars directly mixed with 20-30%.
Q: What is the difference between natural graphite and artificial graphite?
A: The natural graphite is already graphite in the ground. After pickling, it becomes layered graphite. When rolled up, it becomes A natural graphite ball
Advantages: relatively cheap, high capacity (360GWH), high compaction;
Disadvantages: poor cycling performance, easy expansion, poor high temperature performance
Q: Has the artificial graphite anode technology spread so that everyone can make homogeneous products?
A: It is true that there is technology diffusion. Now there are many small plants. From the middle of last year until now, the negative plant has produced 6 to 7 million tons.
(1) There are double calculations. 300,000 tons of finished products and 100,000 tons of graphitization are invested. The total data is relatively large.
(2) Local planning is relatively large, the government also has demand, want to get up performance;
(3) Overall, effective capacity may only be 20%, the announcement of capacity in the name of doing negative, in fact, is the process, OEM, technology diffusion or the threshold.
Q: Domestic natural use is less, is it related to the negative technology, is the foreign negative technology better?
A: (1) Abroad: Samsung and LG have used natural products for A long time and their technology is more mature, so the poor performance caused by natural products will be smaller than that in China
(2) Domestic: ① before BYD with natural graphite is relatively early, BYD is currently 10% of natural graphite, bus with some natural graphite, half and half, Han, Tang, seal are using artificial graphite, low-end cars dare to use.
The main use of ningde is artificial graphite, natural graphite is not handy.
Q: Does the price of natural graphite anode increase?
A: Depending on the market situation, prices will rise and there will be price changes
6, continuous graphitization
Q: Progress in continuous graphitization?
A 1) the current progress is not ideal, now the graphitization is box-type furnace, acheson furnace, continuous graphitization is similar to diaphragm industry, also depends on equipment.
(2) A Japanese company does a better job. 340kg/WH and below products have no big problems, while 350kg/WH with high capacity is not stable.
(3) Continuous graphitization is a good development direction, one ton needs 4000-5000 KWH electricity, one day to produce products, box furnace, Aitchison furnace three or four days to produce products, after judgment and the traditional way will coexist.
Post time: Jun-20-2022