[Needle Coke] Supply and demand analysis and development characteristics of needle coke in China
I. China’s needle coke market capacity
In 2016, the global production capacity of needle coke was 1.07 million tons/year, and China’s production capacity of needle coke was 350,000 tons/year, accounting for 32.71% of the global production capacity. By 2021, the global production capacity of needle coke increased to 3.36 million tons/year, among which China’s production capacity of needle coke was 2.29 million tons/year, accounting for 68.15% of the global production capacity. China’s production enterprises of needle coke increased to 22. The total production capacity of domestic needle coke enterprises increased by 554.29% compared with 2016, while the production capacity of foreign needle coke was stable. By 2022, China’s production capacity of needle coke has increased to 2.72 million tons, an increase of about 7.7 times, and the number of Chinese needle coke manufacturers has increased to 27, showing large-scale development of the industry, and taking a global view, the proportion of China’s needle coke in the international market has been increasing year by year.
1. Oil production capacity of needle coke
The production capacity of oil-series needle coke began to grow rapidly from 2019. From 2017 to 2019, China’s market of oil-series needle coke was dominated by coal measures, while the development of oil-series needle coke was slow. Most of the existing established enterprises put into production after 2018, and the production capacity of oil-series needle coke in China reached 1.59 million tons by 2022. The production kept increasing year by year. In 2019, the downstream graphite electrode market turned sharply downward, and the demand for needle coke was weak. In 2022, due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Winter Olympics and other public events, demand has weakened, while costs are high, enterprises are less motivated to produce, and output growth is slow.
2. Production capacity of coal measure needle coke
The production capacity of coal measure needle coke also keeps increasing year by year, from 350,000 tons in 2017 to 1.2 million tons in 2022. From 2020, the market share of coal measure decreases, and oil series needle coke becomes the mainstream of needle coke. In terms of output, it maintained growth from 2017 to 2019. From 2020, on the one hand, the cost was high and the profit was inverted. On the other hand, the demand for graphite electrode was not good.
Ⅱ. Demand analysis of needle Coke in China
1. Market analysis of lithium anode materials
From the negative material output, the annual output of China’s negative material increased steadily from 2017 to 2019. In 2020, affected by the continuous rise of the downstream terminal market, the overall start of power battery starts to pick up, the market demand increases significantly, and the orders of negative electrode material enterprises increase, and the overall start of enterprise picks up quickly and keeps an upward momentum. In 2021-2022, China’s output of lithium cathode materials showed explosive growth, benefiting from the continuous improvement of the business climate of downstream industries, the rapid development of new energy vehicle market, energy storage, consumption, small power and other markets also showed varying degrees of growth, and mainstream large cathode material enterprises maintained full production. It is estimated that the output of negative electrode materials is expected to exceed 1.1 million tons in 2022, and the product is in a state of short supply, and the application prospect of negative electrode materials is broad.
Needle coke is the upstream industry of lithium battery and anode material, which is closely related to the development of lithium battery and cathode material market. The application fields of lithium battery mainly include power battery, consumer battery and energy storage battery. In 2021, power batteries will account for 68%, consumer batteries for 22%, and energy storage batteries for 10% of China’s lithium ion battery product structure.
Power battery is the core component of new energy vehicles. In recent years, with the implementation of the “carbon peak, carbon neutral” policy, China’s new energy vehicle industry ushered in a new historical opportunity. In 2021, global new-energy vehicle sales reached 6.5 million, and power battery shipments reached 317GWh, up 100.63% year on year. China’s new-energy vehicle sales reached 3.52 million units, and power battery shipments reached 226GWh, up 182.50 percent year on year. It is expected that the global power battery shipment will reach 1,550GWh in 2025 and 3,000GWh in 2030. The Chinese market will maintain its position as the largest power battery market in the world with a stable market share of over 50%.
Post time: Dec-21-2022